Blog
Research and analysis from the Betwatch team.
Everybody knows comebacks don't work. Nobody has actually checked.
Unretirement is one of the oldest stories in sports and one of the least examined. The obvious way to measure it answers a different question than the one being asked.
By Parker · September 1, 2026 · 7 min read
The Florida State theory, tested on 1,560 college football openers
Everyone knows a good team that loses its opener as a favorite is broken. Nobody had ever checked, so we built the dataset and checked.
By Parker · August 30, 2026 · 9 min read
The NBA publishes a power ranking every August and hides it in the Christmas schedule
Eighteen years of Christmas Day slates matched against how each season ended: a real forecast with one famous blind spot, a rule about who gets dropped, and the longest bet the league ever made finally paying out at the Garden.
By Parker · August 12, 2026 · 8 min read
What a rookie QB's preseason actually tells you about his career
We rebuilt 23 years of NFL preseason passing data (7,417 passer-games) to settle an argument that happens every August.
By Parker · August 9, 2026 · 9 min read