Which sportsbooks lead line moves? We tracked every price change at 23 books
When one book moves a game line, how far does the rest of the market follow? Two weeks of every moneyline, spread and total price change say Bet105 and BetUS lead, Pinnacle's moves stick, and the market barely follows prediction markets.
By Jacob · October 26, 2026 · 6 min read
Every betting forum gives the same advice: watch the sharp book, because when it moves, the rest of the market follows. Usually "the sharp book" means Pinnacle. We wanted to know whether that is what actually happens, so we measured it.
Betwatch records every price change at every book it tracks. For two weeks, September 22 to October 5, 2026, we took every move on a full-game moneyline, spread or total before kickoff, at 23 books and prediction markets, and asked one question: when a book moved a line, how far did the other books follow?
A move here is a change of 2 percentage points or more in that book's win chance with the vig removed. "Followed" is how far the other books' consensus on the same line moved the same way, as a share of the book's own move. 100% would mean the whole market ended up where that book went.
1. Bet105 and BetUS were followed furthest
When Bet105 moved a game line, the rest of the market moved 54% of the way toward it by kickoff, the most of all 23 books (2,747 moves). BetUS came next at 40%, then theScore Bet (38%), Hard Rock Bet and ProphetX (37% each), and BetOnline and FanDuel (31% each).
The top two rarely come up when bettors talk about sharp books. Bet105's lead is large enough to stand out. The books a few points apart behind it are not clearly different from each other.
One thing works against the leaders here. We see some books every few seconds and others every 15 to 20 minutes, and a book we look at less often is seen moving later than it really did, after part of the market has already followed. Bet105 and BetUS are among the slow-checked books, so if anything their numbers are understated.
2. Pinnacle's moves stick
Pinnacle moved more often than almost any book: 16,485 times in two weeks. The market followed those moves 24% of the way by kickoff, close to DraftKings (23%) and BetMGM (25%). On that measure alone, Pinnacle is not the leader.
But Pinnacle kept 88% of its own moves through kickoff. When it moved, it rarely moved back, even when others were slow to copy it. The books the market followed least tended to give back more of their own moves: BetRivers kept 74%, Kalshi 65% and Polymarket 54%. A Pinnacle move is worth taking seriously, just not as the only signal.
3. The biggest US books sit in the middle
DraftKings 23%, BetMGM 25%, Fanatics 28%, FanDuel 31%. These are the books most bettors use, and none of them leads the market on game lines. Caesars (7%) and bet365 (10%) were followed least among the sportsbooks, though Caesars rests on only 74 moves, so read it as rough.
4. The market barely follows prediction markets
Polymarket changed its prices 39,978 times, more than any other source, and the rest of the market followed 2% of the way. Kalshi was followed 16% and Novig 20%. Prediction market prices move a lot, but sportsbooks mostly do not move with them. The exception is ProphetX, an exchange, at 37%.
What to do with this
- Do not trust one sharp book. In this data the market followed Bet105, BetUS, theScore Bet, Hard Rock Bet and ProphetX further than Pinnacle. Several of them moving the same way is a stronger signal than any one of them.
- A lone move at a book the market rarely follows is a price, not a signal. That book is often just off the market for a while, and its price on the other side can be the best one available until it moves back.
- Watch who moves first. The Movement Tracker's Who moved first view names the book that moved first in every steam run, and each game on the Live Board charts every book's line from the open (both free with an account). Without an account, the line movement tracker lists the games whose consensus moved most.
The full table
| Book | Moves | Followed in 30 min | Followed by kickoff | Kept its own move | Typical gap between our looks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet105 | 2,747 | 47% | 54% | 92% | 13 min |
| BetUS | 1,423 | 30% | 40% | 93% | 20 min |
| theScore Bet | 4,767 | 25% | 38% | 104% | 1.4 min |
| Hard Rock Bet | 4,889 | 24% | 37% | 109% | 5 min |
| ProphetX | 1,033 | 24% | 37% | 97% | 2 min |
| FanDuel | 3,159 | 21% | 31% | 89% | 17 s |
| BetOnline | 219 | 18% | 31% | 92% | 4 min |
| Fanatics | 8,685 | 17% | 28% | 85% | 55 s |
| BetMGM | 5,435 | 11% | 25% | 79% | 55 s |
| Pinnacle | 16,485 | 12% | 24% | 88% | 16 min |
| DraftKings | 4,563 | 18% | 23% | 89% | 9 s |
| BetParx | 16,064 | 23% | 23% | 79% | 55 s |
| 4Cx | 271 | 18% | 23% | 89% | 4 min |
| Bally Bet | 33,013 | 22% | 21% | 75% | 55 s |
| Novig | 1,014 | 11% | 20% | 60% | 2 min |
| Rebet | 595 | 11% | 19% | 82% | 5 min |
| BetRivers | 31,506 | 19% | 18% | 74% | 55 s |
| Bovada | 207 | 4% | 18% | 92% | 20 min |
| Kalshi | 7,207 | 12% | 16% | 65% | 1 min |
| Fliff | 3,316 | 5% | 10% | 62% | 1 s |
| bet365 | 1,255 | 10% | 10% | 75% | 28 s |
| Caesars | 74 | 2% | 7% | 64% | 8 s |
| Polymarket | 39,978 | 0% | 2% | 54% | 8 min |
- Moves: times we saw that book's win chance with the vig removed change by 2 percentage points or more on a line.
- Followed: how far the other books' consensus on the same line moved in the same direction, as a share of the book's own move, 30 minutes later and at kickoff.
- Kept its own move: how much of the move the book still held at kickoff. Over 100% means it kept moving the same way.
- Typical gap between our looks: the median time between two of our observations of that book.
Method and limits
Data. Every price change Betwatch recorded on full-game moneylines, spreads and totals, in every league it tracks, from September 22 to October 5, 2026, before kickoff only (no live betting). Pick'em apps are left out because they post payouts, not prices.
Moves. Each book's two prices on a line are turned into a win chance with the vig removed (power method). A move is a change of 2 or more percentage points between two of our observations of that book.
Followed. For each move, the other books' consensus on the same line is taken just before the move, 30 minutes after it and at kickoff. "Followed" is the consensus change in the direction of the move, divided by the size of the move.
Uncertainty. Standard errors on the "by kickoff" shares are about 1 point for the busiest books (Pinnacle, Bally Bet, BetRivers, BetParx, Polymarket), 2 to 5 points for most others, and 6 to 9 points for the smallest samples (Bovada, Caesars, bet365, BetOnline, 4Cx). They are simple standard errors, not adjusted for several moves on the same game, so the real uncertainty is somewhat larger. Books a few points apart (BetUS, theScore Bet, Hard Rock Bet, ProphetX) are not clearly different.
What it shows. It measures how much of a book's move the rest of the market adopted afterwards, which is what leading means for a bettor: the books others follow are the ones whose new number becomes the market. It does not say why a book moved, or whether betting into its move would have won.
Limits. A book we observe less often is seen moving later than it really did, so its follow-through is understated (the last column of the table shows how often we see each book). Two weeks is one slice of the season, across all leagues together, and the ranking can differ by sport and by time of year. A plain markdown copy of this study for AI assistants is at /research/which-sportsbooks-lead-line-moves.md.
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