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How much is a half point worth? What books really charge
A half point costs about 6 cents on an ordinary NFL number, 18 cents off the 3, 15 cents off the 7 and a flat 8 cents in the NBA, all measured from -110, so the old 10-cent rule is wrong almost everywhere.
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By the Betwatch team. Published Nov 4, 2026, updated Nov 4, 2026.
What does a half point cost?
The usual advice says 10 cents, 20 to 25 off the 3 and 15 off the 7. We measured what books actually charge: the price difference between neighboring rungs on their alternate spreads for the favorite, turned into what you would pay starting from -110.
The NFL is nowhere near flat. Ordinary numbers cost 4 to 6 cents, half what the rule says. The 3 costs 18, the 7 costs 15 and the 10 costs 9 to 10. College football has the same shape with lower peaks and a real bump at 14. The NBA charges the same 8 cents on almost every number.
- NFL
- College
- NBA
Data table
| Off number | NFL | College | NBA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5.5 | 5.2 | n/a |
| 1.5 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 5.6 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 8.0 |
| 2.5 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 7.9 |
| 3 | 17.8 | 14.4 | 8.2 |
| 3.5 | 17.7 | 15.7 | 8.2 |
| 4 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 8.2 |
| 4.5 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 7.9 |
| 5 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 8.3 |
| 5.5 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 8.2 |
| 6 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 7.9 |
| 6.5 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 8.1 |
| 7 | 15.8 | 12.2 | 8.2 |
| 7.5 | 14.7 | 12.5 | 8.7 |
| 8 | 7.9 | 6.2 | 8.2 |
| 8.5 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 8.6 |
| 9 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 8.5 |
| 9.5 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 8.0 |
| 10 | 10.2 | 8.7 | 7.9 |
| 10.5 | 9.0 | 8.1 | 7.8 |
| 11 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 7.7 |
| 11.5 | 5.2 | 4.4 | n/a |
What are the key numbers in the NFL?
Books charge more where more games end. In the NFL 14.9% of games are decided by exactly 3 points, 8.7% by 7, 7.1% by 6 and 5.1% by 14. No other number reaches 5%. College football has a softer version, with 7.8% on 3 and 7.1% on 7. The NBA has no key numbers: no margin passes about 6%.
- NFL
- College
- NBA
Data table
| Margin | NFL | College | NBA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4.4% | 3.3% | 4.0% |
| 2 | 4.6% | 2.5% | 5.1% |
| 3 | 14.9% | 7.8% | 5.6% |
| 4 | 4.7% | 3.3% | 5.5% |
| 5 | 4.5% | 2.3% | 6.0% |
| 6 | 7.0% | 3.0% | 5.8% |
| 7 | 8.7% | 7.0% | 6.0% |
| 8 | 4.3% | 2.5% | 6.0% |
| 9 | 1.6% | 1.1% | 5.4% |
| 10 | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.5% |
| 11 | 2.1% | 2.0% | 4.3% |
| 12 | 1.9% | 1.3% | 4.0% |
| 13 | 2.0% | 1.8% | 3.6% |
| 14 | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.5% |
| 15 | 1.6% | 1.6% | 3.1% |
| 16 | 2.4% | 1.4% | n/a |
| 17 | 3.6% | 3.1% | n/a |
| 18 | 2.2% | 2.1% | n/a |
| 19 | 1.1% | 1.4% | n/a |
| 20 | 2.0% | 1.9% | n/a |
When is buying a half point worth it?
Moving -3.5 to -3 turns a loss into a push when the favorite wins by exactly 3. The half point pays for itself if that happens often enough to cover the extra juice. The table shows how often it has to happen, how often NFL games end on that number at all, and the share of those games that has to go the favorite's way.
| Move | Price from -110 | Must land | Games ending there | Share that must go your way |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 to -1 | -116 | 2.3% | 4.4% | 53% |
| -2.5 to -2 | -116 | 2.3% | 4.6% | 50% |
| -3.5 to -3 | -128 | 6.6% | 14.9% | 44% |
| -4.5 to -4 | -117 | 2.7% | 4.7% | 58% |
| -5.5 to -5 | -115 | 2.0% | 4.5% | 46% |
| -6.5 to -6 | -118 | 3.3% | 7.1% | 47% |
| -7.5 to -7 | -125 | 5.6% | 8.7% | 64% |
| -8.5 to -8 | -116 | 2.4% | 4.3% | 56% |
| -9.5 to -9 | -114 | 1.5% | 1.7% | 92% |
| -10.5 to -10 | -119 | 3.6% | 4.7% | 77% |
| -11.5 to -11 | -115 | 2.2% | 2.1% | 102% |
Read the last column. Off the 3, the favorite has to be the winner in 44% of games decided by 3, and favorites are the likelier winners. The most expensive half point on the board is priced about right.
The cheapest ones are the traps. Off -9.5 you pay only 4 cents, but 92% of all 9-point games would have to be favorites winning. Off -11.5 the number is out of reach: more than every game decided by 11 would have to go your way. A low price on a half point usually means the number is not worth much.
Bigger favorites do land on their own number more than the all-games share suggests, so these are guides rather than verdicts. They are still a better guide than a flat 10 cents.
Which sportsbook charges least to cross the 3?
Books disagree most on the numbers that matter. Crossing the 3 by a full point, -3.5 to -2.5, runs from -146 at BetRivers to -158 at Hard Rock Bet, FanDuel and Pinnacle, starting from -110. On an ordinary number the same trip costs about the same everywhere.
| Book | -3.5 to -2.5 | -7.5 to -6.5 | -5.5 to -4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetRivers | -146 | -142 | -121 |
| BallyBet | -146 | -143 | -121 |
| DraftKings | -150 | -138 | -121 |
| FanDuel | -158 | not enough games | -122 |
| Pinnacle | -158 | -144 | -120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -158 | -138 | -119 |
A high price on the 3 does not make a book a bad deal overall: Pinnacle is among the priciest here and still has the lowest vig on main lines. A book that is cheap on 3 is not always cheap on 7: DraftKings and Hard Rock Bet are the lowest on 7, and neither is the lowest on 3.
What is a half point worth in college football and the NBA?
In college football a half point off the 3 costs about 14 to 16 cents, off the 7 about 12, off the 14 about 9, and on many ordinary numbers about 5. A few are cheaper still: 9 and 12 come in at about 3 cents, since few games end there.
In the NBA it is about 8 cents on almost every number from 2 to 11. Margins are spread evenly from 2 to 9, each taking 5% to 6% of games, so no number deserves a premium. Buying half points there is paying the same toll every time.
How we measured it
For each game and book we took the last price before the start at every rung of the favorite's alternate spread, took the change in win chance between neighboring rungs, and used the median across games. We then applied that change to a -110 price so every figure is comparable.
The break-even landing rate assumes a bet that exactly breaks even at -110. Margins come from final scores over many seasons of regular season and playoff games.
How to price a half point before you buy it
1. Check whether you are crossing a key number. If you are not, the half point is doing little.
2. Convert the price you are offered to a win chance and compare it with the line you are moving off.
3. Compare that same rung across books. The price of crossing 3 differs by 12 cents among major books.
4. Check whether another book already has the better number at standard juice, which beats buying it.
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How much is a half point worth? What books really charge: questions
How much is a half point worth in the NFL?
About 5 to 6 cents on most numbers, measured from -110. Off the 3 it costs about 18 cents, off the 7 about 15, and off the 10 about 9.
How much is a half point worth in college football?
About 5 cents on an ordinary number, 14 to 16 off the 3, about 12 off the 7 and about 9 off the 14.
What are the key numbers in the NFL?
The 3 and the 7 first, at 14.9% and 8.7% of games. Then 6, 14 and 10 at 7.1%, 5.1% and 4.7%.
Should you buy off the 3 in the NFL?
At the measured price of about -128 from -110, it pays if about 6.6% of bets land on exactly 3. Since 14.9% of NFL games are decided by 3, the price is close to fair, so shopping the number first still matters more.
How much does it cost to buy a half point?
From -110 it usually takes you to about -115 or -116 on an ordinary NFL number, -118 in the NBA, and about -128 off the 3.
Is a half point worth it in the NBA?
It costs a flat 8 cents or so on almost any number, and no NBA margin stands out the way 3 does in the NFL. There is no key number to justify a special price.
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