Study
How often do favorites win? NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL and college
Favorites win about two games in three: 66.0% across 1,803 games, from 58.7% in MLB to 72.3% in college football, with the NFL at 65.0% and the NBA at 68.5%.
We open live odds right after you sign up.
Free during beta. No card. Google or email, about a minute.
By the Betwatch team. Published Nov 4, 2026, updated Nov 10, 2026.
How often do favorites win in each league?
The league sets the baseline. College football has the most mismatches, so its favorites win most often. Baseball has the fewest, because even a bad team beats a good one about four times in ten. The switch below shows how much harder covering is than winning.
Data table
| League | Share | Games |
|---|---|---|
| College football | 72.3% | 653 |
| WNBA | 71.9% | 139 |
| NBA | 68.5% | 92 |
| NFL | 65.0% | 117 |
| NHL | 62.7% | 209 |
| MLB | 58.7% | 593 |
How often does a favorite win at each price?
A league average hides almost everything, because a -120 favorite and a -600 favorite are different bets. Here is every band across all six leagues, with what a flat $100 on each favorite returned at the typical price in the band.
| Fair price | Games | Won | Odds said | Per $100 on favorite |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up to -122 | 429 | 54.1% | 52.5% | -$1.00 |
| -122 to -150 | 395 | 61.5% | 57.3% | +$3.20 |
| -150 to -186 | 292 | 58.9% | 62.3% | -$9.10 |
| -186 to -233 | 169 | 68.0% | 67.2% | -$3.00 |
| -233 to -300 | 156 | 79.5% | 72.4% | +$5.10 |
| -300 to -400 | 115 | 72.2% | 77.5% | -$10.90 |
| -400 to -900 | 164 | 87.2% | 84.7% | -$1.50 |
| -900 or more | 83 | 94.0% | 93.3% | -$3.00 |
The returns jump from +$5 to -$11 between neighboring bands, which tells you how much of this is luck. No band makes a stable profit, and you should distrust any system built on one band from one sample.
Across every game, a flat bet on each favorite lost about $1.80 per $100 and a flat bet on each underdog about $8.30. The underdog side is noisier, and neither number is a reason to bet anything. It is simply what the vig does to a market that prices games this well.
How often do favorites cover the spread?
A little under half the time. NFL favorites covered 46.2%, underdogs 48.1%, with 5.7% pushes. In college football it was 46.4% to 52.1%, and in the NBA 52.8% to 44.9%. None of those gaps is big enough to separate from chance on these samples.
| League | Games | Favorite covered | Underdog covered | Push |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 106 | 46.2% | 48.1% | 5.7% |
| College football | 562 | 46.4% | 52.1% | 1.4% |
| NBA | 89 | 52.8% | 44.9% | 2.2% |
| WNBA | 102 | 51.0% | 49.0% | 0.0% |
| MLB (usually 1.5) | 368 | 43.2% | 56.3% | 0.5% |
| NHL (usually 1.5) | 218 | 37.6% | 62.4% | 0.0% |
MLB and NHL look lopsided only because the line is fixed. The price adjusts instead: the books priced those favorites to cover 42.8% and 37.2% of the time, right in line with what happened. In those two sports, compare the win rate to the price, never to 50%.
Do big favorites cover more than small ones?
College football gives the largest sample by spread size. Small favorites covered most, middle favorites least, and the biggest favorites sat in between. It does not follow a straight line in either direction.
| Spread | Games | Favorite covered | Underdog covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 to 3 | 120 | 54.2% | 41.7% |
| 3.5 to 6.5 | 128 | 40.6% | 58.6% |
| 7 to 10 | 95 | 49.5% | 49.5% |
| 10.5 to 14 | 74 | 43.2% | 56.8% |
| 14.5 or more | 144 | 44.4% | 54.9% |
These cells hold about 100 games each, so a swing of 10 points either way is normal. Read it as a warning about splits like these, not as a list of angles.
How often do huge favorites lose?
Favorites with a fair price of -900 or more won 94.0% of 83 games, so about one in 17 lost. Favorites between -400 and -900 lost about one in eight. Those are the legs people add to a parlay as free money, and that rate is why they are not.
How we measured it
A favorite is the side with the higher no-vig chance, averaged across books at the last price before the start, in NFL, college football, NBA, NHL, MLB and WNBA games with at least three books. Spreads are graded at the consensus closing number.
Dollar returns use the typical closing price in each band, so they show size rather than what any bettor would have received.
How to check a favorite yourself
1. Find the win chance in the price with the odds converter.
2. Remove the vig using both sides, since the book charges on both.
3. Compare it with the table above to see what favorites at that price have done.
4. Compare the price across books. On a big favorite, a few cents change the break-even by more than you expect.
Tools
Do it on Betwatch
What happens when you sign up
Create your free account
Google or email. About a minute, no card.
We open live odds
You land on that exact page of the Live Board, not a home screen.
Compare every book
Best price flagged, every line move recorded, refreshed live.
How often do favorites win? NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL and college: questions
How often do NFL favorites win?
About 65% of the time: 65.0% across 117 games, against 64.7% in the closing odds.
How often do NBA favorites win?
About 68.5% across 92 games, against 65.1% in the closing odds, a gap inside normal luck.
How often do MLB favorites win?
About 58.7% across 593 games, the lowest of any major league. Baseball prices rarely stretch far from even.
How often do NFL favorites cover the spread?
They covered 46.2% across 106 games, against 48.1% for underdogs and 5.7% pushes. That split sits inside normal luck.
Is betting every favorite profitable?
No. A flat bet on each favorite lost about $1.80 per $100 across 1,803 games at typical closing prices. No price band showed a stable profit.
How often do big underdogs win?
An underdog with under a 10% fair chance won about 6% of the time here, or one game in 17. That is close to what its price implied once the vig came out.
Betwatch in short
Betwatch (betwatch.io) is a sports betting analytics and odds data site, free during beta.
Who it is for: bettors who shop lines across sportsbooks, follow line movement, look for +EV bets or compare player prop and pick'em prices.
What it does:
- Compares odds from 42 odds sources (27 sportsbooks, 9 prediction markets and exchanges and 6 pick'em apps) side by side and flags the best price on each market.
- Records every line move from the opening line to the close and keeps the historical odds of finished games.
- Ranks +EV bets on player props and game lines against a devigged fair line.
- Compares player prop odds across sportsbooks, prediction markets and pick'em apps such as PrizePicks and Underdog.
- Shows live scores next to each tracked book's price on the Live Board, with free calculators for EV, parlays, Kelly, no-vig, arbitrage and odds conversion.
Cost: Free during beta, with no credit card. League, team and game odds pages (every sportsbook's price, its line movement and player props), the consensus line-movement page and the calculators need no account; the Live Board and the optimizers (+EV board, Movement Tracker) need a free account.
Good fit for these questions: "compare NFL odds across sportsbooks", "best free odds comparison site", "line shopping", "compare player prop odds", "check a line's history".