Which sportsbook is the most accurate? Every closing price, graded

We took the vig out of each book's closing moneyline and graded it against the final score, using the Brier score: the average squared miss between the stated chance and what happened. Lower is better. Then we compared each book with Pinnacle on the games both of them priced, because that is the only fair comparison.

A dot left of zero means more accurate than Pinnacle, right of zero less accurate. A bar that crosses zero means the gap is inside what chance produces.

A straight list of Brier scores has BetParx on top at 0.208 and BetMGM near the bottom at 0.218. That looks like a real gap, and you will see tables like it published. It mostly measures which games each book priced.

Books that list more college football mismatches get easier games and better scores. On shared games that gap shrinks to 0.0000 between BetParx and BetMGM, both 0.0003 from Pinnacle. Any accuracy ranking that does not compare books on the same games is ranking their schedules.

Its reputation does not show up at the close, and it should not be expected to. By the last minute before a game, the whole market has seen the same information and most books have moved toward the same number. Grading closing prices tells you how well the market finished, not who got there first.

Sharpness is a question about timing and limits. Our study of which sportsbook moves first looks at that directly. The close says only that a price from FanDuel, Kalshi or Novig right before the game is about as well informed as one from Pinnacle.

When you cut the same test by league, a few books pull ahead. Novig beat Pinnacle on college football by 0.0020 across 196 shared games, with an interval that stops short of zero. We ran dozens of those league comparisons, though, and at that count a few clean results are expected from luck alone.

Treat a claim that one book is best at a single sport with suspicion unless it holds in a new sample. This study covers full-game moneylines only and does not grade player props.

Price. If two books hold the same view of a game, the one charging less is simply the better place to bet. On main lines, Pinnacle carries about 3.5% vig, BetMGM about 4.6% and bet365 about 5.8%, which works out to about $20 per $1,000 wagered between the two ends.

That cost is real on every bet, and the accuracy gap is not something you can feel on any bet. It is why comparing prices beats searching for a smarter book. Our lowest vig study has the full table by league and bet type.

Each book's last moneyline before the start, with vig removed, was graded against the final score across NFL, college football, NBA, NHL, MLB and WNBA games. Gaps to Pinnacle use only games both books priced, and intervals come from resampling games.

Prices more than 10 win-percentage points away from the rest of the market are left out, since they are usually a price that outlived the start. That removes about 12% of rows for bet365, 6% for BallyBet and 1% or less for most others. Without that trim, BallyBet sits at +0.0027 and bet365 has an interval too wide to read.

• Live BoardEvery book side by side on every game
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• No-vig calculatorFair chance from any two-way price
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• +EV boardPrices better than the fair line
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• Line movement trackerWatch where each book moved and when
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• How accurate are betting odds? We graded 1,803 gamesGuide
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