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How often do arbitrage bets happen, and how long do they last?
Arbitrage bets happen often but pay little: about 48% of 595 games showed one on a main line at the big US books at some point before the start, the typical one paid under $8 per $1,000 staked and lasted about 6 minutes, and only about one game in five had one of 1% or more that held for 5 minutes.
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By the Betwatch team. Published Nov 4, 2026, updated Nov 4, 2026.
How often do arbitrage bets happen?
We tracked full-game moneylines, spreads and totals across 11 big US sportsbooks before the start of 595 NFL, college football, NBA and NHL games. An arbitrage here means the best price on each side, at two different books, adds up to less than 100% in implied chance.
That happened about 1.5 times per game, or about 49 times a day on a slate of about 33 games. So yes, arbitrage is still possible. The more useful question is how much of it is worth anything.
| League | Games | Games with an arb | Per game | Typical margin | Typical life | 1%+ for 5+ min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All | 595 | 47.9% | 1.5 | 0.77% | 6 min | 23.5% |
| NBA | 92 | 79.3% | 3.6 | 0.91% | 4 min | 40.2% |
| NFL | 41 | 53.7% | 1.3 | 0.70% | 5 min | 24.4% |
| College football | 335 | 43.0% | 1.2 | 0.67% | 9 min | 20.0% |
| NHL | 118 | 33.9% | 0.6 | 1.05% | 16 min | 21.2% |
The last column is the one to read. It keeps only gaps of at least 1% that held for at least 5 minutes, which is about what it takes to place two bets at two books by hand. About one game in five has one. The NBA has the most, since its lines move all day on injury news and books do not move together.
How much do arbitrage bets pay, and how long do they last?
The typical margin is 0.77%, or $7.73 on $1,000 staked across both sides. 39% are under half a percent, and only about 18% reach 2%. The typical gap lasts about 6 minutes, 42% are gone in under 5 and about 23% stay up for half an hour or more.
The timing surprises people. Almost half of them appear more than a day before the start, when the market is quiet and the books are slow to match each other. Under 9% come in the final hour.
Data table
| Band | Share of gaps |
|---|---|
| Under 0.5% | 39.3% |
| 0.5% to 1% | 18.9% |
| 1% to 2% | 23.5% |
| 2% or more | 18.3% |
Are there arbitrage bets at the closing line?
Almost none. At the last price before the start, only 34 of 3,936 main spreads and totals had an arbitrage across the big US books, or 0.86%, and 17 of those 34 were NHL totals. The NFL had 1 of 372. Before the start, by contrast, 22.5% of games showed one on the main spread at some point and 14.4% on the main total.
The market spends the week fixing these gaps. By kickoff the books have seen each other and most of the disagreement is gone.
Which bets have the most arbitrage?
Moneylines, by a wide margin. Two books can disagree on a moneyline by a few cents with no change in the number, while a spread or total also needs both books on the same line.
| Bet | Games with an arb | Per game | Typical margin | 1%+ for 5+ min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | 40.1% | 0.95 | 0.73% | 16.8% |
| Spread | 22.5% | 0.41 | 0.92% | 8.9% |
| Total | 14.4% | 0.22 | 0.87% | 4.3% |
Widen the net and the counts climb fast. Include alternate lines and about two games in three show one, with more than ten times as many gaps. Add Pinnacle, Novig, Kalshi and ProphetX and nearly every game shows one on some line, at a median of about 0.4% before any fees, which can erase it.
Which sportsbooks produce the most arbitrage?
The pairs that come up most are BallyBet with FanDuel, FanDuel with Hard Rock Bet, BallyBet with Hard Rock Bet, BallyBet with theScore Bet and DraftKings with FanDuel. It takes two books that price independently and move at different speeds. FanDuel and BallyBet each show up in several of the top pairs.
Books that post near-identical prices rarely create real arbitrage with each other, so we left out pairs among BallyBet, BetParx and BetRivers. Counting them would make the total look bigger without adding a single usable bet.
Why is a real arbitrage harder than the count suggests?
A gap on a screen is only half of a bet. The two legs have to be placed in sequence, and if the second price moves while you place the first you are holding a one-sided position. Stake limits cap the size, especially more than a day out when many of these appear. And books watch for this pattern, so an account that only takes these prices tends not to last.
At $7.73 per $1,000 staked, you need a lot of volume to make the arithmetic matter, and every leg uses up account balance until the game ends. The same price gaps have a second use: they mark the best available number on each side, even if you only ever want one side.
How we measured it
For each game we followed every book's price on the main moneyline, spread and total until it changed, came down or the game started. A gap counts when the best prices on the two sides, at two different books and at the same line, imply less than 100% together. Gaps on the same game, bet and line within 5 minutes of each other count as one, and a margin is measured at the gap's best point.
Gaps above 10% are treated as errors and left out, as are prices that came and went within a minute. MLB had too few games in this sample to report. Some short gaps will have closed before a person could act, and a gap may have been shorter than it looks if a book had already moved. Treating quiet books as out of date gives the same picture: 44.7% of games, a 0.88% typical margin and 18.7% with a gap of 1% or more for 5 minutes.
How to check whether a gap is real
1. Put both prices into the arbitrage calculator to see the margin and the stake on each side.
2. Confirm both books are on the same line and the same market rules before trusting the number.
3. Check how long the gap has been open and how close the game is. A fresh gap may be a book about to move.
4. Work out the dollars after any fee and the stake the book will accept, then decide if it is worth tying up that balance.
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How often do arbitrage bets happen, and how long do they last?: questions
How often do arbitrage opportunities occur?
About 1.5 times per game on main lines at big US books, and 47.9% of games show at least one before the start. About one game in five has one of 1% or more that lasts 5 minutes.
How long do arbitrage opportunities last?
The typical one lasts about 6 minutes. About 42% are gone within 5 minutes and about 23% stay up for 30 minutes or more.
How much profit is in an arbitrage bet?
The typical main-line margin is 0.77%, or $7.73 on $1,000 staked across both sides. Only about 18% reach 2%.
Is arbitrage betting still possible?
Yes. Gaps still appear on nearly half of games at the big US books. The harder parts are placing both legs before a price moves, stake limits and keeping accounts open.
Which sport has the most arbitrage?
The NBA among the leagues we measured, with 79.3% of games showing at least one and 3.6 per game. The NHL had the fewest, with 33.9% and 0.6 per game.
When do arbitrage bets appear?
Almost half appear more than a day before the start and under 9% in the final hour. At the last price before the start, only 0.86% of main spreads and totals have one.
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