Guide
PrizePicks and Underdog math: flex vs power break-even
On PrizePicks and Underdog each pick has to win about 53% to 58% of the time to break even, depending on the app and the entry, which is the same as laying about -115 to -137 on every leg.
We open +EV bets right after you sign up.
Free during beta. No card. Google or email, about a minute.
By the Betwatch team. Published Nov 4, 2026, updated Nov 10, 2026.
The break-even table, by app and entry
A power entry pays only when every pick hits, so the math takes one line: break-even per pick is one divided by the payout, to the power of one over the number of picks. A 5-pick entry at 20x needs (1/20)^(1/5) = 54.9%. Flex entries pay on misses too, so they take a sum over each result, and the table below has already done it.
PP is PrizePicks and UD is Underdog, whose Power entry is called Standard. Every figure here is the standard payout on the app with all picks at even strength. Goblins, demons and Scorchers change the payout, so run the entry you actually see through the calculator.
Power break-even
54.9%
Flex break-even
54.3%
Power return per $1
$1.10
Flex return per $1
$1.12
- Power
- Flex
- Break-even
Data table
| Power | Flex | Break-even | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | -37.5% | -25% | 0% |
| 50.5% | -34.3% | -22.3% | 0% |
| 51% | -31.0% | -19.6% | 0% |
| 51.5% | -27.5% | -16.8% | 0% |
| 52% | -24.0% | -13.9% | 0% |
| 52.5% | -20.2% | -11.0% | 0% |
| 53% | -16.4% | -7.9% | 0% |
| 53.5% | -12.3% | -4.8% | 0% |
| 54% | -8.2% | -1.6% | 0% |
| 54.5% | -3.8% | +1.6% | 0% |
| 55% | +0.7% | +5.0% | 0% |
| 55.5% | +5.3% | +8.4% | 0% |
| 56% | +10.1% | +11.9% | 0% |
| 56.5% | +15.2% | +15.6% | 0% |
| 57% | +20.3% | +19.3% | 0% |
| 57.5% | +25.7% | +23.0% | 0% |
| 58% | +31.3% | +26.9% | 0% |
| 58.5% | +37.0% | +30.9% | 0% |
| 59% | +43.0% | +35.0% | 0% |
| 59.5% | +49.1% | +39.2% | 0% |
| 60% | +55.5% | +43.4% | 0% |
| 60.5% | +62.1% | +47.8% | 0% |
| 61% | +68.9% | +52.3% | 0% |
| 61.5% | +76.0% | +56.8% | 0% |
| 62% | +83.2% | +61.5% | 0% |
Standard payouts. Boosted picks change them, so enter the payout your entry shows.
| Entry size | PP Power | PP Flex | UD Power | UD Flex |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 picks | 57.7% | n/a | 53.5% | n/a |
| 3 picks | 55.0% | 57.7% | 53.6% | 55.4% |
| 4 picks | 56.2% | 55.0% | 53.7% | 55.6% |
| 5 picks | 54.9% | 54.3% | 54.9% | 54.7% |
| 6 picks | 54.7% | 54.2% | 55.3% | 53.8% |
The spread is wider than most players think. A 2-pick on PrizePicks needs 57.7% per pick. The same 2-pick on Underdog needs 53.5%, at the standard tables. That gap is the difference between laying -137 and laying -115 on each pick.
Read break-even as a price
A hit rate means little until you turn it into odds. 55% per pick is -122 on every leg. A prop at a sportsbook is usually -110, which breaks even at 52.4%, so a pick'em entry charges more than the sportsbook on a pick where the two agree on the number.
So the question is never "do I like this over?". It is "does the market make this pick better than my break-even?". If the book hangs a player's Over 24.5 points at -150 and the app still lists 24.5, the no-vig chance of that Over is around 57%, which clears the bar on nearly every entry in the table. If the book has it at -110, the same pick loses money on any entry in the table, however much you like the player.
This is the part apps do not compete on. Their lines move slower than sportsbook prices, because the app shows a number and a sportsbook shows a number and a price. The gap between the two is where a pick'em player finds value, and it is what the Betwatch +EV board ranks across PrizePicks, Underdog and the rest.
Power or flex: flex buys steadiness, not always value
Flex is sold as insurance, and the table shows the price varies. On PrizePicks, 3-pick flex has the same break-even as a 2-pick power entry, 57.7%, the worst in the table. At 4, 5 and 6 picks, flex beats power by half a point to a point. So flex is not automatically the cheaper entry, and the smallest one is the expensive one.
What flex does change is how often you get paid. At 56% per pick, a 5-pick power entry cashes 5.5% of the time. A 5-pick flex returns something 61% of the time, though the 0.4x tier is still a loss. If you are playing small and often, power has a far rougher ride to the same average.
Same-game picks break the math, in your favor
Every number above assumes picks win independently. Two picks that tend to win together, such as a quarterback's passing yards and his top receiver's yards, hit together more often than their separate chances say. Two picks at 55% hit together 30.3% of the time when independent, and a 3x entry on that returns $0.91 per $1. If correlation lifts it to 35%, the same entry returns $1.05. Apps know this and block or reprice the obvious pairs, but plenty of smaller correlations stay open.
How to check a pick'em entry
1. Find the payout your entry shows in the app, including any goblin, demon or Scorcher changes.
2. Work out your break-even per pick with the calculator above, or read it from the table for a standard entry.
3. For each pick, find the no-vig chance from sportsbook prices on the same line. The no-vig calculator does it, and the +EV board does it for every pick at once.
4. Multiply the chances together for a power entry and compare with one divided by the payout. If the product is higher, the entry pays more than it costs on average.
5. Keep records. A hot week proves nothing until you have hundreds of picks, and the sample-size guide shows how many you need.
Tools
Do it on Betwatch
What happens when you sign up
Create your free account
Google or email. About a minute, no card.
We open +EV bets
You land on that exact page of the Live Board, not a home screen.
Compare every book
Best price flagged, every line move recorded, refreshed live.
PrizePicks and Underdog math: flex vs power break-even: questions
What win percentage do you need on PrizePicks?
It depends on the entry: from about 54.2% per pick on a 6-pick flex to 57.7% on a 2-pick power entry, at the standard payouts.
What is the break-even on Underdog pick'em?
On standard entries, from 53.5% per pick on a 2-pick to about 55.3% on a 6-pick, at the standard payouts. Boosted picks change the payout, so check the entry you see.
Is power or flex better on PrizePicks?
At 4, 5 and 6 picks flex has the lower break-even, by half a point to a point. At 3 picks power is far cheaper. Flex pays more often either way, so it is the steadier ride.
How many picks is the best value on a pick'em app?
At the standard payouts, Underdog 2 to 4 pick entries have the lowest break-evens among standard entries, and PrizePicks 5 and 6 pick flex entries are its lowest. More picks raise the swing a lot, so the lowest break-even is not always the one you want.
How do goblins and demons change the break-even?
They change the payout, and break-even follows it: power break-even is one divided by the payout, to the power of one over the number of picks. A goblin line is easier and pays less, so use the payout your entry shows, not the standard one.
Are pick'em apps better than sportsbook parlays?
They can be, because the payout is fixed whatever the picks, so a pick the market prices at -150 pays the same as one at -105. A sportsbook prices each leg, which removes that gap.
Betwatch in short
Betwatch (betwatch.io) is a sports betting analytics and odds data site, free during beta.
Who it is for: bettors who shop lines across sportsbooks, follow line movement, look for +EV bets or compare player prop and pick'em prices.
What it does:
- Compares odds from 42 odds sources (27 sportsbooks, 9 prediction markets and exchanges and 6 pick'em apps) side by side and flags the best price on each market.
- Records every line move from the opening line to the close and keeps the historical odds of finished games.
- Ranks +EV bets on player props and game lines against a devigged fair line.
- Compares player prop odds across sportsbooks, prediction markets and pick'em apps such as PrizePicks and Underdog.
- Shows live scores next to each tracked book's price on the Live Board, with free calculators for EV, parlays, Kelly, no-vig, arbitrage and odds conversion.
Cost: Free during beta, with no credit card. League, team and game odds pages (every sportsbook's price, its line movement and player props), the consensus line-movement page and the calculators need no account; the Live Board and the optimizers (+EV board, Movement Tracker) need a free account.
Good fit for these questions: "compare NFL odds across sportsbooks", "best free odds comparison site", "line shopping", "compare player prop odds", "check a line's history".