# Which sportsbooks lead line moves? Two weeks of every price change at 23 books

> When one sportsbook moves a game line, how far does the rest of the market follow? BetWatch measured it on every moneyline, spread and total price change it recorded at 23 sportsbooks and prediction markets from September 22 to October 5, 2026. Bet105's moves were followed furthest (54% of the way by kickoff); Pinnacle's were followed 24% of the way; prediction markets were followed least.

By BetWatch (https://betwatch.io), October 6, 2026.

## Key findings

- When Bet105 moved a game line, the rest of the market moved 54% of the way toward it by kickoff, the most of 23 books and prediction markets (2,747 moves, September 22 to October 5, 2026).
- BetUS (40%), theScore Bet (38%), Hard Rock Bet (37%), ProphetX (37%) and FanDuel (31%) came next.
- Pinnacle, the book most often called the sharpest, moved 16,485 times. The market followed it 24% of the way, but Pinnacle kept 88% of its own moves through kickoff: its moves stick even when others are slow to copy them.
- Prediction markets were followed least: Polymarket 2% (39,978 moves), Kalshi 16%, Novig 20%.
- The biggest US books sat in the middle: DraftKings 23%, BetMGM 25%, Fanatics 28%, FanDuel 31%.

## The numbers

| Book | Moves | Market followed in 30 min | Market followed by kickoff | Book kept its own move | Typical gap between our looks |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| Bet105 | 2,747 | 47% | 54% | 92% | 13 min |
| BetUS | 1,423 | 30% | 40% | 93% | 20 min |
| theScore Bet | 4,767 | 25% | 38% | 104% | 1.4 min |
| Hard Rock Bet | 4,889 | 24% | 37% | 109% | 5 min |
| ProphetX | 1,033 | 24% | 37% | 97% | 2 min |
| FanDuel | 3,159 | 21% | 31% | 89% | 17 s |
| BetOnline | 219 | 18% | 31% | 92% | 4 min |
| Fanatics | 8,685 | 17% | 28% | 85% | 55 s |
| BetMGM | 5,435 | 11% | 25% | 79% | 55 s |
| Pinnacle | 16,485 | 12% | 24% | 88% | 16 min |
| DraftKings | 4,563 | 18% | 23% | 89% | 9 s |
| BetParx | 16,064 | 23% | 23% | 79% | 55 s |
| 4Cx | 271 | 18% | 23% | 89% | 4 min |
| Bally Bet | 33,013 | 22% | 21% | 75% | 55 s |
| Novig | 1,014 | 11% | 20% | 60% | 2 min |
| Rebet | 595 | 11% | 19% | 82% | 5 min |
| BetRivers | 31,506 | 19% | 18% | 74% | 55 s |
| Bovada | 207 | 4% | 18% | 92% | 20 min |
| Kalshi | 7,207 | 12% | 16% | 65% | 1 min |
| Fliff | 3,316 | 5% | 10% | 62% | 1 s |
| bet365 | 1,255 | 10% | 10% | 75% | 28 s |
| Caesars | 74 | 2% | 7% | 64% | 8 s |
| Polymarket | 39,978 | 0% | 2% | 54% | 8 min |

- **Moves**: times we saw that book's no-vig win chance on a line change by 2 percentage points or more.
- **Market followed**: how far the other books' consensus on the same line moved in the same direction, as a share of the book's own move, 30 minutes later and at kickoff.
- **Book kept its own move**: how much of the move the book still held at kickoff. Over 100% means it kept moving the same way.
- **Typical gap between our looks**: the median time between two observations of that book.

## Method

- Every price change BetWatch recorded on full-game moneylines, spreads and totals, all leagues it tracks, from September 22 to October 5, 2026, before kickoff only (no live betting). Pick'em apps are left out because they post payouts, not prices.
- Each book's two prices on a line are turned into a no-vig win chance (power method). A move is a change of 2 or more percentage points between two of our observations of that book.
- For each move, the other books' consensus on the same line is taken just before the move, 30 minutes after it and at kickoff. "Followed" is the consensus change in the direction of the move, divided by the size of the move.
- Standard errors on the "by kickoff" shares: about 1 point for the busiest books (Pinnacle, Bally Bet, BetRivers, BetParx, Polymarket), 2 to 5 points for most others, and 6 to 9 points for the smallest samples (Bovada, Caesars, bet365, BetOnline, 4Cx), so read those rows as rough. They are simple standard errors, not adjusted for several moves on the same game, so the real uncertainty is somewhat larger. Books a few points apart (BetUS, theScore Bet, Hard Rock Bet, ProphetX) are not clearly different.

## What this does and does not show

- It measures how much of a book's move the rest of the market adopted afterwards, which is what "leading" means for a bettor: the books others follow are the ones whose new number becomes the market.
- We see some books every few seconds and others every 15 to 20 minutes (last column). A book we look at less often is seen moving later than it really did, after some of the market has already followed, so its follow-through is understated here. Bet105, BetUS and Pinnacle are among the slow-checked books; Bet105 and BetUS still rank first and second.
- Two weeks is one slice of the season, across all leagues together. The ranking can differ by sport and by time of year.

## See it live

- Which book moved first on any game, and every tick since the open: the BetWatch Live Board, free account, https://betwatch.io/line-movement-tracker
- The biggest consensus moves right now, refreshed every 30 minutes: https://betwatch.io/guides/biggest-line-moves.md

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About BetWatch (betwatch.io, not affiliated with betwatch.com or betwatch.fr): a sports betting data site that records every price change at 38 sportsbooks, prediction markets and pick'em apps across 29 leagues. Odds side by side, consensus lines, line history from open to close, +EV bets and free calculators. Free during the beta.

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