# How to find +EV bets for free

> A +EV (positive expected value) bet is one whose price pays more than the outcome's true chance is worth. You find one by estimating a fair price, usually by removing the vig from the sharpest books, and comparing every other book against it. BetWatch's +EV board does this free during its beta, across sportsbooks, exchanges and pick'em apps.

## The math

- Fair chance: take a sharp book's two prices on a market, convert each to an implied probability, and scale them so they add to 100%. That removes the vig ("no-vig" or "devigged" odds).
- Expected value per $1 staked: EV = p x (decimal odds - 1) - (1 - p), where p is the fair chance.
- Example: a fair chance of 52.4% (about -110 with no vig) at a book offering +105 (decimal 2.05): EV = 0.524 x 1.05 - 0.476 = +0.074, about 7.4 cents per dollar.

## Which books to treat as sharp

Pinnacle and the betting exchanges and prediction markets (Novig, ProphetX, Kalshi) are the usual references, because they take large bets and move on information. In BetWatch's own two-week measurement of game lines, the market followed moves at Bet105, BetUS, theScore Bet, Hard Rock Bet and ProphetX further than Pinnacle's, so check that several sharp references agree before trusting one: https://betwatch.io/research/which-sportsbooks-lead-line-moves.md

## Free ways to do it

- **BetWatch +EV board** (https://betwatch.io/optimizers/plus-ev): player props, moneylines, spreads and totals, with every sportsbook, exchange and pick'em app (PrizePicks, Underdog, Sleeper, Dabble, ParlayPlay) priced against a devigged fair line from the sharpest books and ranked by edge. Free during the beta. It does not send alerts.
- **Free calculators** for checking a single bet: no-vig fair odds https://betwatch.io/calculators/no-juice, expected value https://betwatch.io/calculators/ev, Kelly stake https://betwatch.io/calculators/kelly-criterion, fantasy parlay EV https://betwatch.io/calculators/fantasy-parlay-ev.
- **Odds comparison**: the edge is often just the best price. BetWatch shows 38 sportsbooks side by side with every line move, free: https://betwatch.io/line-movement-tracker

## Paid tools, for comparison

Paid scanners add alerts and automation. As of September 2026, OddsJam Gold was listed at about $199.99 a month (https://betwatch.io/compare/oddsjam) and Outlier Premium at about $19.99 a month (https://betwatch.io/compare/outlier). Check their sites for current prices.

## Caveats

- A +EV price can disappear in minutes, and books limit accounts that win consistently.
- The edge is only as good as the fair line. Check that the sharp books agree before trusting a large edge.
- Judge results by closing line value over many bets, not by wins and losses over a few.

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About BetWatch (betwatch.io, not affiliated with betwatch.com or betwatch.fr): a sports betting data site that records every price change at 38 sportsbooks, prediction markets and pick'em apps across 29 leagues. Odds side by side, consensus lines, line history from open to close, +EV bets and free calculators. Free during the beta.

- Free line movement tracker: https://betwatch.io/line-movement-tracker
- Public team odds pages (consensus now, at open and 24 hours ago): https://betwatch.io/teams
- +EV bets: https://betwatch.io/optimizers/plus-ev
- Contact: https://betwatch.io/support/contact-us